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Optionetics Market Commentary

CLOSING WRAP-UP, October 31


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Phillip Wiegand, Optionetics.com
October 31, 2001

The bulls made a valiant attempt to rally the averages starting around noon, however, they did not have the strength to keep the move going into the close.  The sellers had their way with the tape as the session came to a close, and we ended up right near the lows.  My guess is the that traders are nervous about the economic data that will be released tomorrow morning and wanted to square off positions before going home.  Nevertheless, to day was a great day to trade and make adjustments.  We went up, then down, back up, and then finished lower.  Can’t ask for much better than that!

The NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ) ended up on the day by 22 points to go out at 1,690, and the Dow Industrials ($INDU) traded lower by 47 points to close the session at 9,075.  The S&P 500 ($SPX) was unchanged for the session, and support levels are being tested once again.  So far, these levels have held, but it is important to note that the market tested resistance a couple of times before finally breaking down.  Therefore, it would make sense for the same pattern to develop on the downside.  The news that is released in the next coupe of days will likely determine the direction that we end up taking.   

Tomorrow morning we are going to get the jobless claims report, the personal income and expenditure report, construction spending, and the purchasing managers survey.  All of these reports have the ability to move the market substantially, so we will probably have another interesting day.  As we have seen, the price action is going to be determined by the way the Street perceives the numbers.  Even though bad news is released that does not mean we are definitely heading lower and vice versa.  The difficult task at hand is gauging how certain outcomes are going to be perceived, and that is why I am playing from a non-directional standpoint.   

Having an in depth understanding of the risk profile of your trades is the key to taking your trading to the next level.  This picture provides so much critical information in such a short period of time.  You can spot trouble areas of your trade in seconds and then you can run different scenarios to se how those troublesome areas can be fixed.  Before the market opens, you should know exactly what you will be doing to your trades given certain events take place.  The best way to perform this type of analysis is to view the risk graphs.  

Have a great evening!


Phillip Wiegand
Senior Writer & Trading Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site

 

 

 


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