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Optionetics Commentary

Midday Action: February 9


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Chris Tyler, Optionetics.com
February 9, 2010


Bulls mount a Herculean rescue effort as speculation of a government-assisted effort to revive Greece grows. As of 10:45 ET the SP-500 (SPY) is up 1.00% but sporting tight post opening gap bullish indecision intraday.

Bulls are out once more in the first half of trade and for a second straight day, still-apparent buyers have fairly similar motives. Spearheading for many investors, easing fears of sovereign debt are crossing the tape as speculation of a EU bailout for Greece takes hold of trading desks stateside and across-both-ponds.

Following Monday's second half bout of collective and largely self-inflicted financial concerns which were worthy of bulls giving up all their intraday gains and then some--relief inspired "Bargain Hunting!" has enjoyed a second go at re-confirming Friday's strong technical and corrective low of 9.10% low in the SP-500.

In those often inextricably linked markets, the Yellow Metal (GLD) and Black Gold (USO) are up an unsurprisingly strong 1.50% to 2.50% and leading the broader market. Similarly, predictable weakness in the US Dollar (UUP) can be spied with the currency proxy off 0.80%.

Inspired bulls are busy re-establishing their more optimistic game face via the commodity-heavy and green-shoots loaded carry trade, which of late has experienced the beta-heavy brunt of those same folks, sell-side efforts.

Related tickers sporting deep discounts to recent highs and leading the buying spree, Dow component and machinery giant Caterpillar (CAT) is up more than 6.00% at 53.90 but still more than 16% below highs of $64 set back in mid January. Some of Tuesday's added strength provision is attributed to Morgan Stanley's upgrade of shares to "Overweight" and price target of $70.

A similar story can be found in Aggie (MOO) key player, Monsanto (MON). Shares are up nearly 5.00% at 57.10 after receiving a raise to "Buy" and price target of $96 by BofA analysts. Technical lows near 53 set on Friday held MON's 200-SMA within its existing weekly uptrend, which saw recent highs of 68.28 back in the first half of January.

In that sometimes accurate heat-seeking option action, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and its options are seeing heavy action this morning. The activity though appears to be largely the result of one or two deep in-the-money May / February 60 time spreads totaling a bit more than 50,000 contracts. With similar open interest in the near-term contract, "the spread" could actually be a roll out to March.

In conjunction with lower implieds, the evidence suggests a sale, which could turn out to be a possible buy-write hedge for a larger institutional interest looking to protect their tail and not overly concerned with missing out any potential upside in shares. Judging by the chart's largely lateral congestion in place and a market that ultimately has its work cut out for it, that might not be a bad idea.

Chris Tyler
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
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The information offered here is based upon Christopher Tyler's observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only, the use of which is the responsibility of the individual.


  

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