Morning Watch, Nov. 17
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November 17, 2009
Rise in dollar leaves winning streak in jeopardy as traders digest various economic reports and retail earnings. Data on same-store sales, industrial production and producer prices were all released this morning. Earnings reports from Target and Home Depot were also released.
Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in October, below estimates, but the fourth consecutive month of gains. Economists were looking for industrial production to rise 0.4 percent. Nonetheless, the manufacturing sector has been a leader in the economic recovery, although recent regional reports have fallen off prior month highs.
Producer prices in October rose 0.3 percent with the core rate falling 0.6 percent. Both numbers were below expectations, which called for a gain of 0.5 percent and 0.1 percent in the headline and core figures respectively. Year on year, producer prices are down 1.9 percent overall and up 0.7 percent at the core. Traders will get more data on pricing pressures tomorrow when the consumer price index is released.
The retail sector is a focus Tuesday with several companies in the group reporting earnings. Home Depot (HD) beat earnings estimates by 5-cents a share with revenues also exceeding expectations. However, revenues were down 8.0 percent and same-store sales decline 6.9 percent in the quarter. The home improvement retailer also raised its guidance for fiscal 2009. Despite this news, HD shares are down more than 2 percent in early trading at a price near $27.
Target (TGT) also reported earnings this morning that showed an 18 percent gain in profits. Earnings were 8-cents above expectations at 58-cents, but revenues fell short at $14.8 billion compared with estimates for revenues of $15.25 billion. TGT continues to do what it can to compete with giant Wal-Mart (WMT), which means cutting costs and providing deals both online and at their stores. TGT shares are slightly higher at a price of $50.50.
In related news, same-store sales for the week ending Nov. 14 rose 2.4 percent as measured by the ICSC-Goldman report. The Redbook reported showed a gain of 2.0 percent year on year. This data seems to support views of many economists that the holiday shopping season will be solid despite the weakness seen in the jobs market.
The bulls will be looking for the 1,100 level on the S&P 500 ($SPX) to hold after this key resistance level was broken Monday. Later in the session traders will get data on housing in the form of the housing market index.
Jody Osborne
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site
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