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Optionetics Commentary

Morning Watch, Nov. 11


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Jody Osborne, Optionetics.com
November 11, 2009


Stocks move higher in early trading, but volumes are expected to be very light due to Veterans' Day holiday. Tuesday's session saw the Dow ($INDU) move to another 52-week high and these gains look to continue Wednesday. Economic data is nonexistent today, but traders got bullish comments from Fed leaders. Positive comments from UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) combined with better than expected earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL) to keep stocks in the black.

Home builder Toll Brothers announced preliminary earnings last night that pleased investors with the stock rising more than 8 percent this morning. The company signed 765 net contracts, which is a 42 percent rise in units. TOL leaders said that they have definitely seen progress form the year ago period and that the shut down in the capital markets a year ago seems to be mostly behind us. TOL shares are trading above $20 with a 52-week range from $13.55 to $24.30.

Package delivery companies' UPS and FDX both made positive comments about the upcoming holiday shopping season. UPS see this season to be slightly better than expected and feels that growth in shipment volumes to improve in 2010. This news has lifted shares higher at UPS and FDX with the latter at a new 52-week high.

Wal-Mart (WMT) announced that they will offer a $100 gift card those that buy BlackBerry phones and accessories. This news has benefited Research in Motion (RIMM), the maker of the BlackBerry, with RIMM shares up two percent to a price near $64.50. WMT shares are also higher this morning by nearly one percent to $52.75.

Department store Macy's (M) reported earnings that beat estimates, but the stock is seeing a decline of nearly 5 percent. Macy's results included a 4 percent drop in revenues with same-store sales off 7.5 percent in the quarter. Nonetheless, the company lost 3-cents a share, which was better than estimates for a loss of 7-cents. The problem Macy's shares are having has to do with the company's outlook. The company did lift its profit outlook for the fourth quarter and 2010, but the move was below what analysts expected.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher stated last night that the Fed's decision to keep interest rates low has hurt the dollar, but the Fed doesn't plan on doing anything about this in the near future. He noted that inflation is likely to remain low for some time and that though the dollar has fallen; the decline has not been disorderly. These comments have helped push gold to another record high with the dollar continuing its decline.

Jody Osborne
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site


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