Foreign Exchange: A Short-Term Low on the US Dollar
Email This Article
Print This Article
Digg This
Delicious
SubscribeMOST POPULAR ARTICLES
- Kaeppel's Corner: Catching Up on a Few Ideas
- Closing Wrap-Up, March 17
- Option Watch: March 17 A Steely Call in Vale S.A.
- Closing Wrap-Up, March 18
- AU Editorial: Elliott and Its Ways
- Midday Action: March 17
- Market Trends: Boomer Time Horizons, Part 2
- Index Trading: Let's Trade the Dow! Part 3
- Growth Stock Swing Option: March 18, 2010
- Economic Watchdog, March 18
- Kaeppel's Corner: Catching Up on a Few Ideas
- Real-World Trading: Credit Yourself Using a Bull Put Spread, Part VII
- Kaeppel's Corner: Forecasting the Stock Market in 5 Minutes a Month
- Kaeppel's Corner: And Up Through the Ground Came a Bubblin Crude...
- Market Trends: Objective Investing Decisions, Part 1
- AU Editorial: Elliott and Its Ways
- Foreign Exchange: The Running of the Bulls
- AU Editorial: What If?
- Midday Action: March 19
- Growth Stock Swing Option: March 18, 2010
- Market Trends: Boomer Time Horizons, Part 2
- Economic Watchdog, March 18
- Midday Action: March 18
- Midday Action: March 17
- Kaeppel's Corner: Catching Up on a Few Ideas
- Real-World Trading: The Debit Spread, Part IV
SPONSORED LINKS
October 2, 2009
This week I want to touch on an old favourite of mine - the U.S Dollar/Japanese Yen currency pair. I believe there could be some trading opportunities available for those of you comfortable with Foreign Exchange trading, and across the principles taught in Safety in the Market courses.
At the time of this writing (Monday September 28), the US Dollar looks to have made a bottom against the Japanese Yen at 88.22, as shown in Chart 1 below (FXUSJY in ProfitSource)
Chart 1 
click here to enlarge
On Monday, we saw a nice example of a key reversal signal day, also known as a Doji candlestick pattern. The move down from the April 6th high has so far been 1323 points, which is a fairly standard size range for the Dollar/Yen, if a little larger than previous moves.
There is a lot of talk about a recovery in the US Dollar, but I'll believe that when the charts convince me - for now, I see the Dollar/Yen still clearly entrenched in the bear market that started on June 22, 2007.
The tops on the Dollar/Yen this year have been coming in early in the month on our Time by Degrees dates, meaning early October would be one place to watch for this bounce in the market to end.
As for price, the Gann Retracement Tool can give us some good pressure points to watch and it has been a good servant during this entire bear market range. Chart 2 below shows the Gann Retracement Tool in ProfitSource.
Chart 2 
click here to enlarge
The 50% and 62.5% retracement levels are always worth watching on a market, especially based on the recent history of the Dollar/Yen.
Time will tell how far the Dollar will fall, but I can see it touching 82 by the end of the year, and below 70 in the first quarter of 2010.
As always, we simply wait and watch as the market unfolds and tells its story. The pattern I discussed at the Master Forecasting Summit is continuing to unfold, giving us a very interesting few months in the lead up to Christmas.
To those of you new to Foreign Exchange trading, I recommend that you read of some of my past Trading Tutors Newsletter articles to get a further understanding of the practice before jumping into a trade.
And to those of you who are a little more advanced and possess a solid trading plan, good luck with your trading!
Be Prepared!
Mathew Barnes
Trading Tutors Team
© Copyright 1995-2010 Optionetics. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Republication and re-dissemination, including posting to newsgroups, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Optionetics. Optionetics is a registered trademark of Optionetics, Inc.