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July 1, 2009
Fresh quarterly inflows and likely patriotic bias leads bulls higher despite mostly uninspiring-to-disappointing reports. As of 10:55 ET the S&P500 (SPY) is up 1.15% on lighter green shoots ambitions.
It's all about the economic data in Wednesday's session, well kind of sort of, as a slug of reports has been released. Atop the radar, ADP Employer Services report came in with much steeper job losses than expected.
Analyst views calling for a reduction of 393K in the ADP data were presented with losses of 473K. Separately, but not exactly inspiring, the Challenger report produced a slightly better showing with its decline of 74.4K versus 111K in May.
The good news for bulls, neither report has the best history of being a strong harbinger for tomorrow's more revered nonfarm payrolls data. Also in the economic mix, June national manufacturing data via the ISM was mostly in-line with estimates at 44.8, up slightly from May's levels, but still in contraction territory.
Pending home sales matched estimates for all intents and purposes with its 0.1% reading, but seeing last month's data revised upwards by 0.4% to 7.1%. Lastly, construction spending dropped by 0.9%. The decline was weaker than Street views estimating a setback of -0.6% following Aprils "now" slightly lower climb of 0.6%.
In those other sometimes intertwined markets, some out-the-gate muscle or spirited enthusiasm in crude (USO) and the energy complex (OIH, XLE) helped with the indices bid. However, the intraday embrace has turned into more of a bear hug for bulls despite a larger-than-expected draw in crude supplies of 3.66M barrels versus estimates calling for a decline of 2.0M.
After scoring gains of 2.50% in front of the report, shares of USO are flat at 37.90. At the same time, the energy complex has given back more than half its gains, but still trading up by about 1.05%.
Net, net it appears the potentially bullish data is being interpreted by traders as something other than thriving economic progress being responsible for the drop in inventories-and "red chutes" being the more appropriate course of action.
On the corporate side, a bit of secondary support for bulls is being found in shares of General Mills (GIS). The cereal and miscellaneous packaged foods giant posted a six cent profit beat of $0.86 and raised its fiscal year outlook despite missing on its top line.
Going forward, management at General Mills cited easing commodity costs and new products as key to their bullish outlook. I'm hoping for a new heavily sugar-coated version of Trix. Bulls on the other hand aren't waiting, as shares trade higher by 3.15% to four month highs and a test of the magic line where bears sometimes reside.
Elsewhere and in the Dow (DIA) a trio of samples are aiding bulls in Wednesday's first half. More than just food for thought is being realized in Kraft (KFT). KFT is up 4.75% at 26.50 as hungry bulls nosh on shares in a likely sympathy bid related to General Mills.
Also tasting good with investors, Coke (KO) appears to be "it." Shares of the soft drink producer are up 3.00%. Upward guidance from liquid entertainment provider Constellation Brands (STZ) looks to be promoting a sympathy reaction.
Additionally, "Chips", albeit the semiconductor variety are being sampled in fellow Dow stock Intel (INTC) as shares climb nearly 4% to 17.20. Boutique shop Amtech raised its price target raise to $19 due to channel checks and conservative modeling estimates. Separately, Barclay's opted to offer out an upbeat profit note for Intel due to execution and its "constructive bias."
Finally, entering the lunchtime hour and the market is pretty much right where it was when the pen was first put to the paper, so to speak. Much to my chagrin, the green shoots crowd managed to break a perfectly good bearish engulfing pivot in the SPY. The prior high was all set to mark a classic textbook pivot high within a potential right shoulder in the market proxy.
Today's nefarious bulls took those levels out fractionally while breaking the left shoulder high of 93.22 (May 8) by a penny. That's a "no, no" in classic technical analysis as it's supposed to negate the otherwise, well-constructed topping pattern. That being said, in today's ultra-competitive and program-owned environment-I'm quite certain Edwards & McGee's would be willing to embrace a little wiggle room when pulling out the ruler and rose-colored eyewear.
Chris Tyler
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
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