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Closing Wrap Up: June 24


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Chris Tyler, Optionetics.com
June 24, 2009


Fed-based profit-taking takes back "a little something" from Wednesday's bulls. However, an existing boost from Oracle, durable goods data and that "Je ne sais quoi" from Paris satisfies most investors. As of 4:00 ET the S&P500 ($SPX) closed higher by 0.65% and slightly above the closely-watched and mostly meddlesome 900 level.

Intraday gains nearing 2.00% in the S&P500 were given a run for the money following a mostly reiterated and disappointing policy statement by the Fed. This afternoon's dialogue of continued concern regarding the economic outlook was largely expected.

More troubling to investors, built-up expectations of stronger quantitative measures for its purchasing program were nixed by a helpful but status quo message.

On the other hand, the Fed's stand on maintaining low rates for an extended period did seem to fulfill at least one request from Wall Street's wish list. Unfortunately, the Catch-22 i.e. the weak economy appears to have been given a bit more consideration given its failure to improve upon the use of its monetary tool chest.

Fortunately for bulls, aside from technical washout of the past few sessions offering a bargain-hunting platform in of its own right, a couple early reports continued to provide much needed support for the market. Spearheading for most investors was last night's very well-received and all-around strong results from tech giant and NASDAQ heavyweight Oracle (ORCL).


The world's largest enterprise software concern posted a two cent profit beat with earnings of $0.46 per share. Sales fell by 5.2% year-over-year but did manage to trump consensus views of $6.47B with actual revenues of $6.86B. Additionally, the company boosted its Q1 earnings range above Street views of $0.30 per share with an estimated range of $0.31 - $0.33.



The net result, coupled with management's strong praise for its business execution this past quarter has helped investors on guard of late, appreciate some green shoots optimism for business spending. For its part, shares of ORCL finished higher by 7.00% at 21.26.

Technically, the very strong action also triggered a classic cup with handle breakout on the weekly chart and might be viewed as a potential bullish tell and good barometer for investors overall risk appetite.

Another slighter but touted boon for investors was a welcome "Bonjour" and counter report from the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or "OECD." The group stated the US economy should bottom out in 2009.

The notice from the OECD did contain an attached expectation of the recovery being likely weak due to continued pressure on consumers. Nonetheless, following in the footsteps of Monday's grim assessment for developed economies from the World Bank, investors were allowed to don their green-colored glasses and look for potential bargains.

Bulls also managed to embrace mixed economic data on the session. An existing bid in the pre-market received further upside fuel following a report on durable goods. Results for May usurped estimates by 0.09% with an actual increase of 1.8%. Further, axing out the volatile transportation factor and an increase of 1.1% trumped expectations calling for a decline of 0.05%.

Separately, the less influential new home sales report came in below expectations but didn't manage to disturb the bull's existing festivities for more than a couple one-minute and hard-to-appreciate candlesticks on the intraday chart.

Analysts forecasting 360,000 annualized units for May new home sales were disappointed and comparatively, too optimistic, relative to actual data of 342,000. At the same time, month-over-month, sales dropped by 0.06%, easily missing views calling for an increase of 2.3% after the April data was revised lower by 8,000 to 344,000.

Elsewhere, Black Gold (USO) finished lower by 0.86% at 37.09 in whippy conditions. Weekly inventory data came in mixed and found both bulls and bears gaining the upper hand following the report. A much larger and bullish draw of 3.87M barrels contrasted with a much stronger-than-expected build in gas stocks. Ultimately, traders piled on board the bearish cause, likely helped along by the Fed's cautious outlook and non-commitment to fresh handouts for Wall & Main Street.


And finally, support has been found if we're to embrace easy to say and near hypnotic levels of little real worth. I'm referring of course to the 900 level in the S&P500, which holds this attached aura of "What did you do at 900?"

If you were in Monsanto (MON) though, it's unlikely you were whooping it up like the bulls in the SPY or QQQQ or feeling a little glum and left out like the trader long the DIA. Shares of MON finished lower by nearly 4% at 76.16 and signaled a bearish engulfing neckline breakdown after beating estimates but dashing pent up expectations with its reaffirmed guidance. Now that's some appreciative bull (or not).

Chris Tyler
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
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The information offered here is based upon Christopher Tyler's observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only, the use of which is the responsibility of the individual.


  

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