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Optionetics Commentary

Midday Action: June 24


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Chris Tyler, Optionetics.com
June 24, 2009


Investors continue a relief bid compliments of Oracle, economic data, a ready-made technical platform and a nice wake-up call from Paris. As of 11:00 ET the SPYder" (SPY) is up by 1.85% and firmly bid above the closely-watched but apparently, not-so-powerful 900 level.

Wednesday's non-humping (thus far), bargain-hunting ways got its start last night following an all-around strong and well-received report from tech giant and NASDAQ heavyweight Oracle (ORCL). The world's largest enterprise software concern posted a two cent profit beat with earnings of $0.46 per share. Sales fell by 5.2% year-over-year but did manage to trump consensus views of $6.47B with actual revenues of $6.86B.

Additionally, the company boosted its Q1 earnings range above Street views of $0.30 per share with an estimated range of $0.31 - $0.33. The net result, coupled with management's strong praise for its business execution this past quarter has helped investors on guard of late, appreciate some green shoots optimism for business spending.

Intraday, shares of ORCL are up about 7.75% at 21.40 and triggering above a classic weekly chart buy point of 21.30 courtesy of a cup with handle base that began back in August 2008. On the option side, previously positioned call buyers are seeing their efforts pay off after having to fight off the degenerative effect of today's expected volatility crush.

At-the-money options have seen implieds drop by about 10 points from the 40% IV area to a more statistically fair but still somewhat rich 31%. Bulls realizing some coin in today's session can thank the positive delta component and more importantly, the outsized show of support for ORCL in Wednesday's show.

Another slighter but touted boon for market bulls is a counter report from the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or "OECD." According to a story out of the WSJ, the group stated the US economy should bottom out in 2009. The opinion follows in the footsteps of Monday's much more grim assessment for developed economies by the World Bank.

The OECD does still expect any recovery will be weak, citing still fragile markets exist and continued hardships for consumers due to the labor and housing markets. However, with Monday's "mini melt" mostly attributed to the World Bank's warning, investors are looking at the market with their green colored glasses in Wednesday's first half.

On the officially-sanctioned economic front, a firm start to the session received additional support from durable goods data. Results for May usurped estimates by 0.09% with an actual increase of 1.8%. Further, axing out the volatile transportation factor and an increase of 1.1% trumped expectations calling for a decline of 0.05%.

Separately and for the bears, well kind of, the lesser sister report to Tuesday's mixed existing home sales, has done little to disturb investors despite all-around weaker-than-expected results. Analysts forecasting 360,000 annualized units for May new home sales were off-the-mark as an actual figure of 342,000 hit the tape. Month-over-month, sales dropped by 0.06%, easily missing views calling for an increase of 2.3% after the April data was revised lower by 8,000 to 344,000.

In those sometimes other intertwined markets, Black Gold (USO) is up fractionally by about 0.55% at 37.65. The modest bid follows a mixed weekly inventory report. Today's data showed a much larger 3.87M barrel drawdown in crude. On the other hand, a stronger-than-expected build in gas stocks was also realized. With trader reaction reversing USO from being fractionally pressured on the session; it appears the bulls have opted to focus their resources on the drawdown data.

In bear territory, shares of Monsanto (MON) have put together a grizzly-looking about-face intraday. After sporting some decent sympathetic strength this morning, MON has reversed and is down roughly 2% to 77.65 following its conference call.

The Aggie chemical giant posted a mixed but decent report in the premarket in beating views by $0.08 with profits of $1.25 and reaffirming its "in-line" FY09 guidance of $4.40 - $4.50 versus consensus forecasts of $4.40.

Unfortunately, management's long-winded and conservative details of its business lines have apparently been enough to "round up" and exterminate any would-be bulls. Technically, shares are below the 200-Day MA and sporting a Head & Shoulder topping pattern developed off its March lows and triggering slightly below neckline support.

Later this afternoon trader's will be either cheering or jeering the FOMC policy statement. Skipping past the soon-to-appear CNBC headline "Rates Remain Unchanged at 0.25%", all eyes will be dissecting the attached report for confirmation the Fed remains on board in catering to investors and the economy.

Specifically, details of new or improved upon policy tools / quantitative easing programs will be on Wall Street's wish list. Equally important, bulls will want to find language stressing the continued maintenance of low rates with the economic recovery being the Fed's primary concern.



Chris Tyler
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
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The information offered here is based upon Christopher Tyler's observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only, the use of which is the responsibility of the individual.


  

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