Morning Watch: October 13
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October 13, 2008
In front of the Opening Bell, futures are set to jump aggressively higher on a second and more defined round of global bailout plans. As of 8:15 ET the “Cubes” (QQQQ) and “SPYder” (SPY) are each up by 4.50% and improving upon Friday’s possible “Mother of all bottoms.”
Following Friday’s forty minute and near 12% price gallop from the abyss on nothing more (or less) than bargain-hunting and record-breaking pessimism—traders are looking to confirm those efforts on a orchestrated ‘push’ by global policymakers to pump money and confidence into the fragile financial markets.
Stateside futures are taking their cue from European markets which found rapid gains in excess of 4% to 6% in overnight trade. Over the weekend government’s around the world beefed up existing rescue plans; to which global bulls, bears caught short and sidelined money are giving the proverbial thumbs up too.
Highlights of the global relief efforts include Britain’s near $64.0B commitment in buying top UK-based banks if necessary, while ECB members Germany and France took comparable actions. Stateside, the US announced it will inject capital directly along with a “standardized program” into a ‘broad array’ of financial firms, in order to attract private capital alongside government funds.
Some analysts and traders can and likely will raise some questions regarding whether the interventions are too severe and ultimately infringe upon the foundations of the capital markets. Others also point to the potential for investors to worry over whether the ambitious bailouts are still, even enough to prevent a long and deep global recession. That being said, considering where we’ve been and how the markets got there with its obvious free-reigning ways, investors are currently voting in favor of policymakers latest efforts and likely; more than happy to see ever-volatile and teetering markets on the brink, move one big step towards stabilization.
Elsewhere, shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) are in the headline spotlight and making one of the more dramatic early moves in a day, ready to see many sympathetic relief bids, umm gaps. Friday, shares had been one of the downside leaders after Moody’s announced it was putting the company under review for a credit downgrade.
Following the report, an intraday slider of 50% and still no verdict by the ratings agency, shares are currently up more than 45% near 14.20. The latest news has Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ looking for more favorable terms for its $9.0B / 21% stake by amending the terms to include only convertible preferred shares and no common stock. And while that might not sound overly bullish for many, with looser conditions due to the Columbus Day banking holiday, some bulls are gladly taking sail into unchartered waters of optimism.
In passing, sailing and in the drivers seat with bulls, shares of General Motors are motoring north by some 20% to more than $6 in the premarket. The WSJ reports the company and peer Chrysler (DAI) discussed a potential merger but found the former’s board members giving the idea a “cool reception.” For its part, shares of DAI are up 13% at 34.60.
Separately, Abbott Labs (ABT) is up about 6% near 52.50. The drug manufacturer announced a $5.0B buyback program, which helps bulls in the stock, but also acts as a secondary catalyst for market investors warmed by that feeling of corporate sponsorship. And finally, in the session’s lone earnings release, shares of Fastenal (FAST) are up almost 6% out-the-gate. The fastener specialist announced a penny beat of $0.52 per share and topping last year’s results by eleven cents on a sales increase of 17.1%.
In other intertwined markets, global relief efforts appear to be finding a slightly more cautious investor in the likes of Black Gold and the Yellow Metal (GLD). For its part, the US Oil Fund (USO) is up just .80% near 67.05. Given the decline in the Greenback (UUP) for the dollar-denominated instrument and equities looking unilaterally optimistic about better days ahead, the wheels of commerce appear to have been given a traffic ticket of sorts and told to “slow down.”
And finally, minutes into the trading day and its been a bit of a ‘buy and wait’ situation as indexes have quickly done the proverbial “You’ve come a long way baby”…relatively speaking. Currently, the fear index or VIX is up fractionally at 64.35. That’s well removed from Friday’s historic highs of 77%, but still well into unchartered territories of panic.
Part of the still slight hesitation by investors to sell premium might be linked to the lack of financial traffic courtesy of Columbus Day and this country’s banking system having its doors shut. Maybe bulls can show stronger relief than just artificial holiday-induced gappers in stocks, when America’s Anchor Bankers get back to business as unusual?
Chris Tyler
Staff Writer & Options Strategist
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