AU Editorial: Back to the Future
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April 18, 2008
One lovely SharesBulletin subscriber asked that I revisit the ‘Ferris Wheel’ that I spoke of in Trading Tutors Newsletter back in July 2006. The Ferris Wheel was actually taken from my book Fair Share, which I would plug here but it has just about sold out.
I called it the Ferris Wheel because life is a bit like that and I guess many feel as if they have been on the Big Dipper over the last few weeks rather than the relatively tame Ferris Wheel. It is adopted or might I say Scollonised from the well known economic clock.
So let’s re-look at the Ferris Wheel:
click here for more detail
The subscriber ‘Glynn’ – and I don’t think I am giving too much away here – suggests we might be at 4 o’clock. And I thought he was spot on. That is the problem, all of you are fast catching up and in years to come I will no longer be able to surprise you and you will do me out of a job.
One of the things about economics and life is that it is not exactly predictable. I find behaviour is very predictable but timing is always the tough one to pin down. So the wheel does not move exactly according to what I have outlined, but runs pretty close. One of the things to note about this slow down – and recession in some parts of the world – is that it is unlikely to be long lived and so some aspects may pass without the masses of the population experiencing any great sensation. In Australia we have a two paced economy – some say two faced – some states e.g., Western Australia and Queensland are running hot whilst some like New South Wales are still something of a basket case.
Likewise we are seeing two paced global economies – the laggard western economies and the fast paced developing economies and fortunately for us we are linked to the latter. So our economy is likely to ease rather than go into recession. So for this reason again some aspects of the Wheel are out of synch.
This is a very salient topic that Glynn has raised and it is really a two-part story so I will continue this analysis next week.
Enjoy the ride
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
Trading Tutors Team
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