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Optionetics Commentary

Midday Action: April 18


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Chris Tyler, Optionetics.com
April 18, 2008

 

For existing bulls within the market’s confirmed rally, life is better than “goog” as investors look set to close out the week on a high note. As of 11:00 ET the SPYder” (SPY) and “Cubes” (QQQQ) are up 1.35% to 2.75% on stronger strike busting conditions.

It was already a pleasant week for the bulls, but a slug of well-received reports from market heavyweights have made for one very “goog” Friday in near across-the-board fashion. Today’s continued bid has been spearheaded by Google’s (GOOG) 32-cent blasting of profit estimates, revenues beat and 20% jump in consumer clicks. Additionally, with management saying it sees no impact in the Google Ecosystem from a weakening stateside economy, the news has found sidelined bulls and converts willing to believe and bear flags surrendering in enemy territories. Shares of GOOG are up a staggering and unprepared for (in the options market) 80 points near 535. “GOOyah!”

Bulls embracing “@#%!$ Citi” (C) and its dismal-sounding results have also provided support for Friday’s rally. The financial goliath posted a wider-than-expected loss and writedowns. But much like Merrill’s (MER) performance on Thursday, well after the Opening Bell, investors are acting optimistically. Shares are up 7% and seeing their best levels in two months near 25.70. Traders and analysts more familiar with today’s story are citing relief over the firm’s apparent steps being taken to ensure that nasty ol’ credit crisis is a thing of the past. “MOOyah!”

Fellow Dow components Caterpillar (CAT) and Honeywell (HON) are also finding solid gains on pleasant and better-than-expected results with no spin control needed. In fact, the reports are aiding investors’ realization that earnings and guidance outside of the financial sector aren’t as poor as the bears have been suggesting. For its part, Caterpillar saw an 18% year-over-year jump in profits that bested views by twelve cents. Sales climbed a similar amount due to continued international strength. The company also reaffirmed its targeted sales and profit growth for 2008. CAT is up 5% near 82.65. Separately, shares of HON are up 4.25% after seeing its profits and sales beat Street views. Additionally, management upped its top and bottom-line range estimates to the high end of its prior forecast and in-line with consensus views.

“There’s always a bear market somewhere” or at least profit-taking. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) isn’t handling things very well following its earnings disappointment. The NASDAQ 100 component stock and IBD’s number one Top 100 ranked company (now former) is off a very rough 17% after failing to impress investors with very high expectations. Profits soared by 81% and beat views by 14 cents. In the land of high-octane growth though, fresh sales guidance of $853.2M slightly below official expectations of $857.3M doesn’t cut it. In all likelihood, the shortfall was well-below what was really necessary to keep that leading weekly base looking technically smart. That being said, the news is making a stock incision below the small and manageable stop loss level for too many traders playing the same game. Shares of ISRG are off 59.50 points at 289.50.

Elsewhere, it’s also a rather disappointing day for commodity bulls. Friday’s percentage declines in the likes of Comex Gold and lagging behavior in Black Gold are being attributed to a rebound in the US Dollar. That’s related to hopes for an April rate cut having been reduced following stronger corporate results. The price pressure is also likely tied to the reality that with equities surging, those safe haven / flight to safety spots are finding a less receptive audience. Comex Gold (GLD) is off 2.50 near 90, while Black Gold (USO) has made a fractional stand of up .20 at 92.61 after being down 1.50 points out-the-gate.

And finally, CNBC has enjoyed a bullish line up of analysts promoting this as a great time to invest, throughout the morning. I can’t wait for Power Lunch. No doubt, the latest pin action is very nice to see within the market’s confirmed rally. That said though, two out of three days of powerful upthrusting, a VIX now sub 20% for the first time in 2008 and too many analysts no longer seeing bear flags or series of lower highs; does suggest there will be better days with which to invest in the Google Ecosystem and elsewhere in a still and always, mad money market.

 

 

Chris Tyler
Staff Writer & Options Strategist
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