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wbpreston
(1646 posts)
wrote on 5/16/07 9:16 AM
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Good morning, Bob. After a little hemming-and-hawing, AAPL broke decisively to the downside again, and this is in the face of a fairly positive overall market. I will probably set up my spread soon. Today, most of my stocks favoring long are up, and most of my stocks favoring the short side are down, CME, AAPL, BIDU. It doesn't happen often that way, but when it does, it is nice.
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borankin
(5722 posts)
wrote on 5/16/07 8:37 AM
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Hi. Actually this morning at 9:35AM, I put in a market order to short 200 AAPL and it filled at 108.69. It pays to be lucky.
I also shorted 200 RIMM this morning @149.75.
Notice a pattern here? 200 shs. I have a bunch of shorted duces. Today only one not behaving..FNM. (Barney Frank is arguing with the White House over regulatory legislation.)
You mentioned your concern that AAPL might go to 120 if you were in a short position. Here's where options come into play. Whenever you are short, set up a Platinum file solely for the purpose of monitoring the IV. If IV goes up..close your shorts, because an IV spike means that something is going to happen, even if the word isn't out yet. If IV remains low, letting the 5 day SMA be your pilot ship should suit you just fine.
Bob
Updated by borankin on 5/16/07 8:46 AM
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wbpreston
(1646 posts)
wrote on 5/16/07 5:47 AM
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Statistically, that is a higher probability trade, there is no time decay, but If this thing goes to 120, I know what my risk is. i turned it into a cheap spread.
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borankin
(5722 posts)
wrote on 5/16/07 5:28 AM
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WBP, every day I become more and more convinced that shorting stock is a far better alternative than purchasing a Put.
Bob
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wbpreston
(1646 posts)
wrote on 5/15/07 10:48 AM
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As of mid-day,AAPL has finally "broke", down about a point after being up for days on end. And in a string market, no less. My put, my one lonely AAPl put, is green.
The whole market, after being up well over 100 points, is only up 56 points and the NASDAQ is down 6.
Updated by wbpreston on 5/15/07 10:52 AM
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wbpreston
(1646 posts)
wrote on 5/15/07 7:21 AM
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I bought a June put. I think the stock is subject to a correction as is the whole market.Typically, may is a peak in the market, and then it corrects or drifts. I hope to leg into a bearish spred of some sort. Right now, however,I am down and the stock just keeps going higher.
I am amazed at the low IV of GOOG options. people are really pretty complacent. I have bought a slightly OTM spread on this stock. If I don't make money on the actual price action, I do not think I will loose much because the IV won't go a lot lower then 20.
Updated by wbpreston on 5/15/07 7:35 AM
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borankin
(5722 posts)
wrote on 5/15/07 7:12 AM
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AAPL has been steadily above the 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line for many weeks now. I presently have no open position on either the stock or its options.
That having been said, I am watching it closely and if the stock crosses the 5-day SMA with a dark candle, a short for a few hundred shares looks like a very conservative and nice play.
Any comments?
Bob
PS: Perhaps I should have said "when", not "if".
Updated by borankin on 5/15/07 7:14 AM
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sc149
(10 posts)
wrote on 4/14/07 8:58 AM
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Hi anyone trading APPLE call options with the earnings call on the 25th April? Is anyone still bullish depsite recent drop in stock?
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