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Closing Wrap: December 24


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Chris Tyler, Optionetics.com
December 24, 2008


'Twas the session  before Christmas with more mixed-to-grizzly catalysts finding bears hibernating. As of 1:00 ET, the “Cubes” (QQQQ) and “SPYder” (SPY) are fractionally mixed from 0.00% to 0.58% on seasonally-adjusted volume suggestive of not a creature stirring on the NYSE.

With the dominant creature of late i.e. those Grinch-like bears, caught hibernating or off visiting the clan, a few trampled bulls did manage to prod and cajole the major averages on little effort following five-straight days of unwinding a “Watershed moment” by the FOMC. For those few reading Wednesday’s short story or market fable, mixed but continued weak economic data was the theme of the session.

Durable orders came in slightly better than estimates, but fell by 1.0%. The number of folks filing for benefits this past week climbed by 30,000 to 586,000 and above views. Separately, income dropped by 0.2% versus estimates of 0.0%, while spending swooned by a slightly smaller-than-expected 0.6%. All told, Wednesday’s mix of economic pulse-taking suggests still weak demand by consumers and businesses alike. That of course, should come as little surprise—not even to a mouse or umm, bull.

Elsewhere, maybe a largely absent Santa Clause Rally needs to upgrade to a petrol-based and General Motors (GM) manufactured vehicle? Shares of GM were up 8.33%. The unimpressive gainer is better expressed as a $0.25 increase to $3.25. The stirring of shares occurred in front of a potential weekend vote by the company’s bondholders regarding the future of its financial lending arm GMAC.

For its part, Black Gold and the US Oil Fund (USO) continued to get drilled lower. The USO finished off $0.97 at $29.02 and hitting fresh contract lows. The latest pressure came despite an unexpected and large draw in crude inventories of 3.10M barrels versus estimates calling for an increase of 500K.

More pressing for crude bulls, gasoline supplies jumped 3.34M and above views of 750K, while distillate stockpiles rose 1.81M. Additionally, news of supplies at Cushing, OK, a key delivery point for futures contracts, reaching 28.7M barrels and its highest since 2004, trumped any bullish suggestions of demand for the commodity picking up.

Maybe as well, could some of those potential crude bulls be hoarding the physical on board container ships and executing a not-too-easy to pull-off, but apparently profitable arbitrage at current levels? That type play has been discussed recently on CNBC and might be some “fuel for thought.” Regardless, in After Hours trading, if you want to call it that, shares of USO have plummeted an additional 6% near $27.50. It appears, after trying to find fresh news to no avail, other types of trading cartels have apparently reawakened—and the few remaining bulls, quieter than mice.

And finally, exiting the pre-holiday half session and despite the display of seasonal green, some might say the S&P500 is under pressure, well kind of. With all of those recent misplaced mergers and wrongdoings by corporate Anchor Bankers (MER, WB, NCC), the S&P500 was in need of a little sprucing.

In place of a few lowly-tanked tickers, the folks that oversee such adjustments welcomed small-to-mid capper’s SCANA Corp (SCG), Owens-Illinois (OI) and FLIR Systems (FLIR). While the move to include such low capitalization companies into the S&P500’s club of household heavyweights might irk a few—maybe now, a leaner and greener bantam-weight bull stands a fighting chance.

Chris Tyler
Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site
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